Should there be a military intervention in Libya?

Can they?

As the Libyan popular uprising unfolds, I can identify 4 different scenarios: 1)  defeat of Gaddafi 2) defeat of the rebels 3) a prolonged war of attrition 4) Libya becoming a failed state, descending into sectarianism and tribalism, in other words a Somali style situation.

I start here from the assumption that If there is no external intervention a prolonged conflict could follow with the most probable winner coming out being Gaddafi, as his forces are better organised and has an abundance of financial resources, despite the sanctions.

As for the probability of a militarily intervention, I think one way or another it is becoming a more likely scenario by the hour, in the sense that the rebels do not seem to have the capacity to overthrow on their own Gaddafi and the continuation of Gaddafi’s rule would be a liability for the ‘Western’ powers.

The reasons that western powers cannot afford Gaddafi staying in power has to do:

• firstly with the fact that they have already come publicly in favour of the rebels and against him. A U turn at this point in political terms is highly unlikely due to the high cost that it would entail because of their public opinion.
  

• Furthermore, an eventual survival of Gaddafi would have dramatic repercussion to the interests of all those that were against him in the first place during this conflict, namely the US and the Europeans. The reprisals of Gaddafi to all companies and investments coming from countries that were against him would be severe and immediate, which could amount to a loss of several tenths of billions. not taking into account prospective revenues from trade, investments etc.
  

• Going on, a huge and unprecedented wave of migration and refugees should be expected towards Europe should Gaddafi finally succeed in remaining in power and taking back control of the rebel areas. Firstly, this wave will be fanned by the refugees from eastern Libya that would try to escape in fear of reprisals from  Gaddafi ‘s regime and secondly by the sub-Saharan and Arab economic migrants that Gaddafi will push towards Europe instead of stopping them, as it was the case until now. This could amount to several hundreds of thousands of people that would be used as reprisals against the  Europeans and as a means of pressuring them in unblocking Gaddafi’s frozen funds and lifting the sanctions.

That said, reports that are coming from the eastern areas are not encouraging at all. The rebels are falling back and it seems that they have fuels for just another week, as the refineries in the east are at a full stop whereas in the west are still working. For all the above reasons, along with the humanitarian catastrophe that would follow, I think an intervention will be inevitable in the end.

The question for me now is what kind of military intervention will it be, when it will occur, and under what conditions. In answering these questions, I think that a consensus is being build up, right now that these lines are being written, for the enforcement of a no-fly zone above Libya, rather than having troops on the ground. The rebels have officially asked for it, In 2 days the UN security council will convene to debate this question, France and Britain are actively engaged in preparing a resolution and lobbying for its approval and the Gulf states council and the Islamic organisation conference have come out publicly in favour of this option. Gaddafi is not the most popular leader amongst the Arab rules and the last nail to his coffin would be a decisions in favour of the no-fly zone from the Arab league, which is expected convene on Saturday 12th of March. If the rest of the Arab states will come out in favour of this option then the imposition of a no-fly zone and the fall of Gaddafi  should be considered as a fait accompli.

Concerning when and under what conditions, I think the Europeans and the Americans are awaiting to have a build-up leading to this option, both through pressure from their public opinion, Libyans themselves and regional actors so as to avoid being branded as an invaders, neo-colonialists etc. As for under what conditions, an UN mandate is being actively sought which it is the prudent and correct way to go forward, but which I am not sure whether it will be possible to acquire, since it would require the consent of  Russia and China.

If this is not achieved, then I have serious doubts whether economic and diplomatic sanctions that are now in place will have any effect in removing Kaddafi. North Korea has been under sanctions for decades and the ‘dear leader‘ remains unchallenged in power. I think we should be aware and not foul ourselves that Kaddafi will relinquish power only with  the use of sanctions. He has everything to lose by leaving and nothing to gain and let’s not forget that he has been already under sanctions for decades, which during this time he managed to become even stronger internally.

If Europe steps on the sidelines and leaves Gaddafi to squash the uprising it will have a blowing affect to the credibility of the EU in the Arab world, as an actor that believes and promotes the ideas of democracy, freedom etc., and would strengthen and reassure autocratic regimes around the world. For all these reasons, I think that it would be unwise to remove a priori the possibility of a military intervention in Libya, in the form of a no-fly zone, as it is being suggested by some.

Having said that, I should underline that I am also in favour of diplomacy but I am afraid that in the case of Gaddafi it will not have any affect by its own. As Clausewitz said, ‘War is the continuation of politics by other means‘ and in the case of Gaddafi this will be the ultimate way for his removal. For this reason, I am in favour of the establishment of a no-fly zone so as to avoid the continuation of a prolonged conflict, just next to our doorstep, and so as to avoid further lose of human lives. This could allow the establishment of a new regime by the Libyans themselves, as it was the case in Lebanon and Egypt, which would serve the interests of its people while not being a prospective danger, or a factor of instability to its neighbours, be it Europeans or Arabs.

In conclusion, It has been proven that regimes not enjoying popular support are doomed in the long-term to fail and this is true especially in our days with the unprecedented flow of information. With this in mind, I believe that in the long run the safest and most profitable bet is always being on the people’s side, as dictatorships come and go but people stay. So, what worries me is how this period will be depicted in the history and school books of Libyans after 50 years. Will it be said that Europeans stood idle while Libyans  fighting for their freedom were being killed by Gaddafi or were they supporting their efforts in overthrowing this dictatorial regime? I believe Europe has all to gain from espousing the second scenario and that the events unfolding right now in Libya will affect the course of our relations with this country and the rest of the Arab world, and the Middle East in general, for decades to come.

With these last words, I would like to express my support to the Libyan people fighting for their fundamental human rights.

May you raise to be victorious!